Polymarket projects a 41% chance of US recession in 2025, with Trump’s risky policies fostering economic uncertainty.
Polymarket, the decentralized event trading platform, is now predicting a 41% chance of a US recession in 2025, with Donald Trump making bold moves since his January 2025 inauguration. What started as a joke is now a real trade, with $352k in volume as of March 12. The probability of recession has risen over 21% in a month, and panic is sweeping across the market.
Trump’s economic policies, including sweeping tariffs, mass federal layoffs, and budget cuts, are major headwinds to growth. All this, combined with plunging consumer sentiment and weakening indicators like the Conference Board’s LEI, is contributing to recessionary fears.
Further warning bells were rung with the Atlanta Fed’s negative growth forecast for Q1 this year, the re-inverted yield curve, and nosediving consumer confidence. Economists on X are debating the situation, with Peter Schiff arguing that the US is already in a recession, and it’s only going to get worse.
Schiff warns that investors expecting lower inflation and long-term bond yields as a silver lining may be in for a rude awakening. The US economy’s future remains uncertain.
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