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Bitcoin’s Big Fat Lie? Crypto Exposed?

Yo, the crypto streets are buzzing with wild claims that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are panic selling and dumping their bags. But let’s keep it —that’s cap. Onchain data shows OG Bitcoin holders ain’t flinching. They’re sitting tight, not selling—so where’s the panic coming from? 🤨

This is where misinformation meets reality, and according to CryptoQuant analyst “Onchained”, the streets need to trust data, not drama. He just called out the FUD machine, warning that a lot of these claims about Bitcoin holders capitulating lack real onchain validation. Instead, they’re driven by sensationalist market sentiment.

The Data Doesn’t Lie—LTHs Are HODLing Strong

The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI)—a key metric that tracks how much of Bitcoin’s long-dormant supply is moving—shows NO major sell-off. That’s a fact, not speculation. In plain terms, this means that structural demand is outpacing supply, reinforcing the idea that long-term Bitcoin holders are NOT dumping their bags.

And guess what? Glassnode confirms this too. They reported that LTH activity remains subdued and there’s been a notable decline in sell-side pressure from these holders. So, if they’re not selling, why are these fake narratives spreading?

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Theory—Still Relevant or Nah?

One of the biggest crypto debates right now is whether Bitcoin still follows the classic 4-year halving cycle or if we’ve entered a longer, more unpredictable market phase.

Michael van de Poppe, the founder of MN Trading Capital, dropped a take, saying:

“I assume that we can erase the entire 4-year cycle theory and that we’re in a longer cycle for Altcoins.”

Even Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan backed this up, saying that the traditional four-year cycle is over due to major shifts in the U.S. government’s stance on crypto. He believes crypto markets are now influenced by a new wave of policies and regulations that will play out over a decade.

If that’s true, it could mean that Bitcoin’s price movements won’t be as predictable as before—which explains why some people are confused about where the market is heading.

Bear Market Incoming? Some Analysts Say the Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over

While some analysts are debunking the LTH selling narrative, others are making even bolder claims—that the Bitcoin bull cycle is already done.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju dropped a bombshell on March 17, saying:

“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

He pointed out that all Bitcoin onchain metrics signal a bear market. One of the biggest factors? Fresh liquidity is drying up, and new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. If that’s the case, we could see a consolidation phase for the next 6-12 months before Bitcoin makes its next move.

You might also like: Ether’s Supply Dips to 10-Year Low—Will This Spark a Massive Price Surge?

So, Who’s Right? The Data or the Doomers?

At the end of the day, the crypto market is full of conflicting narratives. Some claim long-term holders are selling, but onchain data proves otherwise. Others say the bull cycle is dead, while some believe we’re just entering a different phase of the market.

One thing’s for sure—misinformation runs deep in crypto. So, before you let FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt) mess with your decisions:

Fact-check your sources.
Verify onchain data.
Stay ahead of the noise.

Because in the end, only the data tells the real story.