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Polymarket Shows 41% Recession Probability in 2025 as Trump’s Bold Moves Shake Economy

Polymarket projects a 41% chance of US recession in 2025, with Trump’s risky policies fostering economic uncertainty.



Polymarket, the decentralized event trading platform, is now predicting a 41% chance of a US recession in 2025, with Donald Trump making bold moves since his January 2025 inauguration. What started as a joke is now a real trade, with $352k in volume as of March 12. The probability of recession has risen over 21% in a month, and panic is sweeping across the market.

Trump’s economic policies, including sweeping tariffs, mass federal layoffs, and budget cuts, are major headwinds to growth. All this, combined with plunging consumer sentiment and weakening indicators like the Conference Board’s LEI, is contributing to recessionary fears.

Further warning bells were rung with the Atlanta Fed’s negative growth forecast for Q1 this year, the re-inverted yield curve, and nosediving consumer confidence. Economists on X are debating the situation, with Peter Schiff arguing that the US is already in a recession, and it’s only going to get worse.

Schiff warns that investors expecting lower inflation and long-term bond yields as a silver lining may be in for a rude awakening. The US economy’s future remains uncertain.

Also Read: Crypto Whale Loses $306M After Getting Liquidated on 50x Leverage Bet on Ethereum

Crypto Whale Loses $306M After Getting Liquidated on 50x Leverage Bet on Ethereum

A whale lost $306M after making a big bet on ETH with 50x leverage. Moral of the story: crypto’s a gamble.


A crypto whale just took a massive L, losing a whopping $306.85 million after his all-in ETH bet was liquidated. Here’s the twist: he was on 50x leverage, meaning his bets were super high-risk.

Starting on March 10, this year, the whale sold 947 ETH for $1.95M in USDC and used it to long ETH on Hyperliquid. As the days went on, he stacked up more and more ETH, pushing his position to 140,458 ETH (worth $269.8M). His entry price was $1,900.28, with a liquidation level of $1,805.

Things went downhill fast. ETH’s price dropped, and the whale’s position got wiped out when the price fell below the liquidation level. In minutes, 160,234 ETH worth $306.85 million was gone.

This huge liquidation is one of the biggest in crypto history. Trading with high leverage is like gambling – even small price changes can lead to massive losses. Many traders on X are using this as a lesson in risk management. Crypto can make you or break you in an instant.

You might also like: Binance Secures $2B Investment from MGX: Major Milestone for Crypto Industry

Binance Secures $2B Investment from MGX: Major Milestone for Crypto Industry

Binance gets a $2B investment from MGX in stablecoins. The biggest crypto company investment yet. CZ celebrates!

Big news for Binance! The crypto exchange just bagged a $2 billion investment from MGX, an investment firm from Abu Dhabi. This is Binance’s first institutional investment, and it’s a game-changer for the industry.

The deal was paid entirely in stablecoins, though the specific stablecoin wasn’t revealed. With this move, MGX gains a minority stake in Binance, making this the largest investment ever in a crypto company. Binance processes a whopping $20 billion in daily transactions, making it the king of the crypto world.

CZ (Changpeng Zhao), Binance’s founder, who also holds UAE citizenship, celebrated the news, calling it a “milestone”. According to MGX CEO Ahmed Yahia, the investment is part of their plan to accelerate blockchain and digital finance.

And here’s the kicker: About 20% of Binance’s global team is based in the UAE, and the region has been a stronghold for Binance despite regulatory challenges elsewhere.

This move further solidifies Binance’s grip on the global crypto market.

Also Read: Singapore and Vietnam Strengthen Ties with Digital Asset Cooperation

Singapore and Vietnam Strengthen Ties with Digital Asset Cooperation

Summary: Vietnam and Singapore have signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) to collaborate on digital asset regulation and the regulation of capital markets. The agreement, signed between the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and Vietnam’s State Securities Commission (SSC), is intended to facilitate regulatory cooperation as well as the sharing of information.

This partnership will help Vietnam develop its regulatory system for digital assets and deepen cooperation in combating money laundering and counter-financing of terrorism. It is harmonious with the other economic ties between both nations, following an upgrade to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE: Bitcoin Rallies to $81K as Crypto Market Rebounds

The signing of the LOI during a Singapore official visit was attended by Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong and Vietnam General Secretary To Lam.

MAS Assistant Managing Director Lim Tuang Lee emphasized cross-border financial interconnectivity as key, while SSC Chair Vu Thi Chan Phuong characterized the agreement as a significant step towards promoting economic cooperation and having transparent financial markets.

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Bitcoin Rallies to $81K as Crypto Market Rebounds

Summary: Bitcoin increased 5.48% in the past 24 hours to $81,946.75 and took its market capitalization to $1.62 trillion. Trading activity also picked up with a 20.14% rise in 24-hour volume to $46.97 billion.

The general crypto market is recovering, with a market value of $2.64 trillion, up 1.84% from yesterday. Ethereum and XRP, other large cryptocurrencies, also registered slight gains.

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This rally follows a recent slide driven by inflation concerns and Trump’s foreign policy initiatives. All expected a rally after the White House Crypto Summit but witnessed prices drop instead. The last biggest price rally came when Trump indicated a U.S. crypto reserve.

And now, with Bitcoin leading the pack, hope is trickling into the markets again. Investors remain hopeful but fingers crossed, waiting to see if this trend holds.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE: VanEck Files for AVAX ETF, but Token Price Keeps Dropping

Chainlink’s Sergey Nazarov on White House Crypto Summit and U.S. Blockchain Leadership

Summary: Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov had his say on the White House Crypto Summit, which was held for the first time at the behest of President Donald Trump on March 7, 2025. The summit reaffirmed the U.S. government’s resolve to position America as the world leader in blockchain and digital assets.

Nazarov highlighted the increasing take-up of stablecoins, whose 2-5% holdings of U.S. treasury market today mean that they can no longer be disregarded by regulators. He further indicated digital asset holdings, awareness among regulators, and greater intersection of DeFi and TradFi into on-chain markets.

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In order to win in the world of crypto, America must build new, regulation-friendly digital assets that can coexist harmoniously on blockchain platforms. Chainlink is a part of this infrastructure with its decentralized oracle network and making proof of reserves and linkages of tokenized assets possible through CCIP.

As regulatory systems take form, the world’s blockchain ecosystem is closely observing how the U.S. will define digital asset innovation, which could become the model for the future of decentralized finance.

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VanEck Files for AVAX ETF, but Token Price Keeps Dropping

Summary: VanEck has submitted an Avalanche (AVAX) ETF filing in the United States, its fourth crypto ETF filing after Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The move comes as AVAX struggles, declining 55% in 2025 and a further 5% over the last 24 hours to $16.78. Although there were some expecting an XRP ETF to be filed first, VanEck’s action has been controversial. If approved, the AVAX ETF would institutionalize investment and liquidity for Avalanche.

VanEck, an international investment firm, has formally applied for an Avalanche ETF in the United States, joining its line of cryptocurrency investment products. The application, dated March 10, 2025, in Delaware under the number 10125689, reflects VanEck’s efforts to bring more digital asset ETFs to market.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE: XRP Struggles at $2.09 as Sell-Offs Hit—Is More Pain Coming?

Avalanche is the latest cryptocurrency for which VanEck has submitted an ETF application to the U.S., following on from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. VanEck also submitted a Solana ETF last year and is among the first to openly adopt crypto-related investment products.

Avalanche, founded in 2020 by Ava Labs and led by Emin Gün Sirer, is a smart contract and dApps-centric blockchain network. It was among the top 10 cryptocurrencies and is currently 20th with a $7 billion market capitalization.

The timing of VanEck’s application is coincidental with a rough year for AVAX, down 55% this year. The token dipped another 5% in the last day to $16.78. There are some within the crypto community questioning why VanEck opted for an AVAX ETF rather than an XRP ETF.

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VanEck is not alone in seeking crypto ETFs. In October 2024, Grayscale filed a request to convert its multi-coin fund—AVAX holding—into an ETF. If approved, a spot AVAX ETF would increase institutional adoption and liquidity for Avalanche.

Bubblemaps TGE Sees Massive 13,500% Oversubscription

Summary: Bubblemaps (BMT) wrapped up its Token Generation Event (TGE) with a staggering 13,500% oversubscription. Originally intending to offer 40 million BMT tokens for 1,503.42 BNB, the event saw around 202,990 BNB worth of subscriptions. Held on Binance Wallet, the TGE fueled speculation of a potential Binance listing, though no official word has been released. BMT is already listed on leading exchanges like MEXC, Kraken, and Bybit.

Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics platform, has finished its Token Generation Event for its own token, BMT, with overwhelming subscription orders. The project had reserved 40 million BMT at $0.02 per token to be sold in order to raise 1,503.42 BNB but received some 202,990 BNB worth of subscriptions—13,500% more than expected. The event follows the recent $3.2 million funding round by Bubblemaps led by INCE Capital, Cryptorank.io reports.

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Since TGE was executed on Binance Wallet, there has grown rumor of an impending Binance listing. Even though not made formally public, BMT already finds exchange trading on platforms like MEXC, Kraken, and Bybit.

Bubblemaps provides blockchain analysis as bubble clusters for token and NFT holdings so that users can detect wallet relationships, hidden whales, and suspicious activity. BMT is the native token of Bubblemaps and is both a utility and governance token, with it enabling features on the platform.

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For the tokenomics of BMT, 26.3% is allocated to ecosystem and community, 24.3% to investors, and 22.2% for adoption and early rewards airdrops. Liquidity reserves 12.2%, team receives 9%, and 6% is assigned to protocol development and R&D.

XRP Struggles at $2.09 as Sell-Offs Hit—Is More Pain Coming?

XRP dropped 3% to $2.09! Trump’s altcoin rule, market liquidations, and low demand are making things worse.

XRP just took another hit, dropping 3% in 24 hours from $2.25 to $2.09. It’s now down 34% since its January all-time high of $3.40.

What’s wrecking XRP? U.S.-China tensions are rising, and Trump’s new rule banning taxpayer money from buying altcoins isn’t helping. On top of that, a massive $697.45M liquidation wiped out a ton of XRP trades, per Coinglass.

💰 Low demand? Santiment reports only 4,516 new XRP wallets were created last Sunday—the lowest number this year. Less demand = less price recovery.

📉 Bearish market vibes:
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson predicts a 5% stock market drop in H1 2025. If that happens, XRP and other cryptos could bleed even more as investors shift to safer assets like bonds.

XRP is holding its $2.10 support zone for now, but traders aren’t convinced. Short positions dominate ($372M vs. $114M in longs), meaning most traders bet XRP will keep falling.

Can XRP hold the line, or is a bigger crash coming?

Also Read: Bitcoin Crashes to $77K After Trump’s Crypto Reserve Plan—Altcoins Bleed Hard

Bitcoin Crashes to $77K After Trump’s Crypto Reserve Plan—Altcoins Bleed Hard

BTC tanked to $77K after Trump’s crypto reserve plan. Altcoins are bleeding double digits. Crypto market volatility is off the charts!

Bitcoin took a nosedive to $77K after Trump’s crypto reserve plan sent shockwaves through the market. Monday’s U.S. stock market dip only fueled the chaos, with the Dow Jones sliding 2.08 points.

BTC tumbled from $83,740 to $76,800 in the past 24 hours but slightly recovered to $81,530, per CoinMarketCap. Trading volume? A massive $59.56 billion in 24 hours.

But it’s not just Bitcoin—altcoins got wrecked. SOL, XRP, and ETH all dropped over 10%, with SOL crashing below $120 for the first time since March 2024.

Other notable altcoins taking hits: FET, LDO, UNI, and ENA (-10%), while ENS, PYTH, THETA, OP, and ARB lost 7% in the last 24 hours.

🚀 Trending Crypto Today:

  • ETH (Ethereum)
  • ARKM (Arkham)
  • AKT (Akash Network)
  • SOL (Solana)
  • XRP (Ripple)

📉 Biggest Losers:

  • LDO (-15%)
  • FET (-15%)
  • ENA (-13%)
  • UNI (-12%)
  • JASMY (-10%)

Total crypto market cap: $2.66T, with a 24-hour volume of $156.82B. The market’s wild—will bulls fight back?

Also Read: Dogecoin Drops 30%, Hits Lowest Price in Four Months Amid Market Sell-Off

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